Part of what journalists try to do every day is to play futurologist - to extrapolate future trends from today’s events. IT managers have to do the same, of course, every time they propose a budget or a five-year plan.

It’s interesting to take a well-publicised event and to think through where it might lead. The recent examples of data misplacement, starting with HMRC’s infamous lost discs in the post from last November, provide a great example.

As a wake up call for business in general, these data losses will fuel interest in some obvious things, and subsequent action is likely to boost the fortunes of particular IT vendors. On the up will be things like:

• Security software in general
• Encryption software in particular (good news for suppliers like SecurStar, GuardianEdge, Check Point and PGP)
• Access control and single-sign-on software (from stalwarts Sun, CA, RSA, IBM-Tivoli, plus specialists like Imprivata)
• Account and identity management tools (Quest Software, NetIQ/Attachmate)
• Systems management software (LanDesk, Tivoli, MS-SMS, Unicenter, etc)
• Database and data management software (Oracle, IBM DB2, Progress, MySQL/Sun, Postgres, Actuate, Brocade, etc)
• Hardware-based access security (Aladdin, SecurID)
• Security consulting (big consultants plus BT, Verizon, 7Safe, Insight, ComSec, etc)
• Security-as-a-service (BT Counterpane, VeriSign, Symantec)
• ISO 17799  certification

Thinking more laterally suggests a whole host of other likely springs of interest. The current furore may be good for Microsoft, if it hastens adoption of Windows Vista - because the Enterprise edition includes BitLocker encryption software as standard.

It surely increases the likelihood of a new regulations. A new breach disclosure law is likely - after all, ministers are now highly incentivised to demonstrate that government departments are not the only organisations capable of losing personal data on a grand scale.

Politicians are also likely to give more resources and more teeth to the Information Commissioner's Office, so as to be seen to be doing something to correct the problem. 

At the less likely end of the spectrum, there may be a resurgence in interest in full public key infrastructure (PKI) schemes, of the kind that last seemed necessary when Baltimore was worth billions rather than being bankrupt.

More likely is that there will be increased interest in server-based computing (benefiting Citrix, Microsoft/Softricity and the like); boosted fortunes for the makers of thin client and, I suspect, thin laptops such as HP’s recently introduced example.

A similar jerk of the knee will also lead buyers to rack-mounted blade PCs from the likes of IBM and HP, and related management software from ClearCube and VMWare.

Fear of data breaches will also stoke the already fierce interest in software as a service, and Saas-based CRM systems from NetSuite and Salesforce.com. In turn, this will encourage more firms to look at cloud-based services like Google Apps.

And finally I predict an increasing spirit of false confidence. Lots of firms will put in place technically superb systems to which any passing hacker will be able to gain access with a few employee names and a list of the 50 most common passwords.